BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo –
>
> Enjoyed your post.
>
> I, too, have been curious about Gomez choosing Bob
> And John over Sinister Minister. My current
> thinking is that it may be a function of ownership
> more than anything. I think Gomez hired Ron
> Anderson to position him as a national go-to rider
> in the Jerry Bailey mold, and riding for
> Stonerside when in doubt fits with that desire (as
> does riding first call for Pletcher in Johnny V's
> absence). That said, I'm not sure I'd be happy
> about the situation if I owned Sinister Minister.
> He's obviously a tough horse to ride, and it would
> have been helpful if Baffert had gotten a jockey
> for the Blue Grass who was willing to stay aboard
> for the Derby.
>
> I've been trying to guess at the odds line for the
> Derby. I'm starting with Watchmaker's line in the
> DRF, which seems to add up about right if you
> assume a 16% takeout. You've got Sinister
> Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint, and Bob And John all
> at lower prices than Watchmaker. Your prices make
> sense to me, but I can't figure out who's going to
> drift higher.
>

I'll chime in with my gut feeling odds line. I'm not gonna factor the field and not gonna take the time to consider takeout and breakage.

Brother Derek 7-2
Barbaro 9-2
Lawyer Ron 5-1
Bob and John 9-1
Sinister Minister 11-1
Point Determined 12-1
Sweetnorthernsaint 14-1
Keyed Entery 25-1
Jazil 25-1
Sunriver 28-1

Who cares about the rest.