Jerry,

I see the definition of a wise guy horse as one that doesn't make sense to the casual observer - ie, there is an angle there that only the sharp guys will find. SNS does not fit that description. He is fast by any measure and has the look of a horse that wants to go on. Fans all across the spectrum will be betting on SNS, and he will probably be third choice.

SM is definitely NOT the wise guy horse. Most sharp handicappers will tell you never to bet the speedball coming out of the Blue Grass. The wise guy angle here is to predict that SM will finish last.

AP Warrior fits the mold more. On paper, he looks to be a notch below the best, but I am reading about some pattern guys who think he is ready to run big.

The horse I consider to be the wise guy selection is Point Determined. He is slower that Bro Derek, and has no Beyers that would put him in the top three. Pace handicappers like him because of the favorable pace scenario though, and I have read comments from from at least three Baffert "insiders" who say PD is ready to run a big one. PD reminds me of the all-time best wise guy horse, PD from the '02 Derby.
.....

In fact, it would not surprise me if Point Determined goes off at the same odds as Perfect Drift did, makes the same closing run from off the pace as Perfect Drift did, and flattens out a bit late and finishes third, just as Perfect Drift did (although if this one collapses, there's no reason why PD can't be the one to pick up the pieces)....





Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/24/2006 06:08PM by Michael D..