scottv Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sinister is a huge bounce candidate, but it is the
> pace that will do him in.

Assuming Sinister pulls a nice hole and breaks well he'll probably make his own pace. Sharp Humor and Mister Triester both have a turn of foot too but I really don't think anyone can run with Sinister. He's a run off and will be clear. Its an issue of his readiness to throw the entire 10 poles at them and who wants to try and reel him in when hes significantly leading after 4 poles. If he breaks well and maybe even if he doesn't break well, he'll be opening ground on these. The horse he's gonna impact most is Brother Derek. This could be a very tough race for Brother. They say Derek has been training lights out. He better be, because he won't be chasing Dawn of War and Henny Hughes this time.

Long story short, I don't think the others have enough pace in them to tickle Sinister. He's gonna decide this one on his own and will likely leave some very frustrated horses in his wake.

> runners in the race, I would be concerned about
> this horse. BDerek also keeps him honest with a
> far turn move.
>
> Without Sinister, this race could take a
> completely look without a true barnburner in the
> race.
>
>
> And don't Think Baffert knows it. He's got two
> other horses that need BDerek to collapse in order
> to have a chance

I don't agree that Bob and John and Point Determined need a Bro Derek collapse. Bob and John is not the same horse Derek beat in the Hollywood Futurity. John has come along. He learned a lot Wood Day and has every reason to continue to improve.

That said, I don't think Bro Derek is going to appreciate having to run at a horse in front of him. In fact, I don't think he's gonna like it at all. He's not going to enjoy his jockey trying to restrain him and hes likely to get tight seeing a horse in front of him. The worst will be when Solis decides Derek is fighting the rating and turns him loose. That will be the acid test. If Derek hasn't already squandered his energy fighting Solis and earnestly sets his sights on the horse in front of him its hard to say how he's gonna react when all his running doesn't get him any closer. He ran game in the B.C.Juvenile. But the Derby's two turns and two extra marks could empty the tank. He may spit the bit.