tmcdevitt Wrote:
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> Chuckles-
>
> You're right,he is NOT Bellamy Road.Not nearly as
> good. After years of passively reading this board
> but never posting, this whole SM thing has finally
> pushed me off the ledge. Here goes;
>
> The study that needs to be done is the following:
> Across the top 10 tracks in the country, for the
> last 2 years, calculate the average distance
> between the winner and last place horse for every
> dirt race. Seperate into two groups of sprints and
> routes. What you will likely see is that all the
> tracks are roughly equal with the exception of
> Keeneland. Everybody who posts here seems to be
> talented and knowledgeable handicappers. How often
> are you left clutching your tickets in your sweaty
> palms waiting for the outcome of a photo finish at
> Keeneland??? Virtually never.
>
> It's not about whether the track was speed
> favoring or not on BG day. Keeneland has always
> produced runaway winners, with incredibly strung
> out fields, and numbers that are often never
> repeated again. Whether its the track surface,
> lack of banking on the turns, lush
> scenery......who knows. It's just not able to be
> simply captured by saying the KEE track was speed
> favoring or not on a given day. The track simply
> produces races that you don't see elsewhere.
>
> I can't tell you how many tickets I've cashed
> playing against runaway winners at KEE when they
> show up at another track, or on hores who turned
> in inexplicably horrendous efforts at KEE. The BG
> is a complete throwout. Sinister Minister is still
> just a horse with a solitary MAIDEN 5 1/2F, $62.5K
> Claiming win on his resume, not a 9F Grade 1
> winner. And since I was at GG for the Cal Derby (I
> live about a mile away) I can tell you with
> certainty that bouncing off the rail did NOT
> somehow hide his true Grade 1 form. It showed him
> to be what he really is; A green, one dimensional
> horse with a solitary Maiden 5 1/2F, $62.5K
> Claiming win.
>
> Bellamy Road had a 5 in a 2-turn, $200K stakes
> race as a 2YO, and a slightly negative number in a
> mile allowance race as a 3YO before the Wood. No
> comparison.
>
> Book it; he's cloer to last than first in the
> derby. You're a way better handicapper than that
> Chuckles. The question I struggle with out of the
> BG is whether BG Cat's thoro-pattern can be taken
> at face value....for all of the reasons listed
> above
>
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/25/06 01:46PM by
> tmcdevitt.

I am fully aware of the recent trend regarding the Keeneland surface and how big figure earners upon that surface have generally faired thereafter. But would you not agree that there are some big winners from Keeneland that run very well next? What about Lion Heart? What about The Cliff's Edge? Do you think their big Bluegrass was counterfeit?

What about a genuinely special horse blossoming there? When will you know? Once Polytrack is installed? How big will a special horse have to win by? 10 Lengths? 13 lengths? 31 Lengths? Is there a winning margin that will make one say, "Wait a minute, this place is quirky, but that horse just did something obscene!"

My question is if a handicapper is fully aware of the Keeneland perceptions, bucks them and wins. Is he the greatest there every was and greatest there ever will be?

Sometimes the fastest scored horse is the right horse for the occasion.

That said, I will be scrutinizing works, post positions and intangibles. I have not made up my mind yet.