Re: Private Vow and Hossgnat (679 Views)
Posted by:
hossgnat (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2006 10:42PM
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> spa Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow can't
> win.
>
> I think some like the Churchill Downs angle and
> project hes still rounding into form. I could be
> mistaken, but didn't he just get back to where he
> was at 2?
>
> He looked like the distance got to him. In the
> next heat, the pace is going to be severe and he
> likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was a
> good race, but other than that who has he beaten
> and is more pace and more distance really going to
> be better for this horse?
>
> This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can comment.
> It is a video of the California Derby. My question
> is twofold:
>
> 1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would have
> been able to catch Sinister Minister but for the
> rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny Hop.
> Its Classic), and;
>
> 2. Do you think that Sinister got back in gear
> after the momentum loss and that at the end of the
> race was on even momentum terms with Cause to
> Believe again?
>
> What do you think.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Chuckles,
My answer to 1. is emphatically yes. I've watched the replay plenty of times as the same question you ask has gnawed at me. But each time I've watched I reach the same conclusion. Take away the rail foolishness and I think it's CTB by a length or two at the wire.
I don't have a strong opinion on your second question. I think it's possible SM regained adequate momentum under heavy urging. But CTB was also cruising to the wire at that point. Being on even terms may have been illusory.
It's a somewhat moot point though, don't you think. We know what SM is all about now and have some feel for what he may be capable of while loose on the lead. It's the pressured pace that will characterize his Derby effort that I don't think he'll appreciate. But perhaps you think he can give them all the slip on the front end, combined with a move forward, even a modest move forward. That's not a play I'll be making, but it would not be a shocking result. Surprising, definitely.