hossgnat Wrote:
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> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > spa Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Chuckles....tell me why Private Vow
> can't
> > win.
> >
> > I think some like the Churchill Downs angle
> and
> > project hes still rounding into form. I could
> be
> > mistaken, but didn't he just get back to
> where he
> > was at 2?
> >
> > He looked like the distance got to him. In
> the
> > next heat, the pace is going to be severe and
> he
> > likes to run up front. The Arkansas Derby was
> a
> > good race, but other than that who has he
> beaten
> > and is more pace and more distance really
> going to
> > be better for this horse?
> >
> > This link is for Hossgnat, but anyone can
> comment.
> > It is a video of the California Derby. My
> question
> > is twofold:
> >
> > 1. Do you think that Cause to Believe would
> have
> > been able to catch Sinister Minister but for
> the
> > rail bumping incident. (Note Sinisters Bunny
> Hop.
> > Its Classic), and;
> >
> > 2. Do you think that Sinister got back in
> gear
> > after the momentum loss and that at the end
> of the
> > race was on even momentum terms with Cause
> to
> > Believe again?
> >
> > What do you think.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> Chuckles,
>
> My answer to 1. is emphatically yes. I've watched
> the replay plenty of times as the same question
> you ask has gnawed at me. But each time I've
> watched I reach the same conclusion. Take away
> the rail foolishness and I think it's CTB by a
> length or two at the wire.
>
> I don't have a strong opinion on your second
> question. I think it's possible SM regained
> adequate momentum under heavy urging. But CTB was
> also cruising to the wire at that point. Being on
> even terms may have been illusory.
>
> It's a somewhat moot point though, don't you
> think. We know what SM is all about now and have
> some feel for what he may be capable of while
> loose on the lead. It's the pressured pace that
> will characterize his Derby effort that I don't
> think he'll appreciate. But perhaps you think he
> can give them all the slip on the front end,
> combined with a move forward, even a modest move
> forward. That's not a play I'll be making, but it
> would not be a shocking result. Surprising,
> definitely.

I really don't think we'll see move forwards from the top horses at 10 marks. I'm not projecting a move forward. I think a two or even three point slip will win. The move forward horses will be Jazil and Steppenwolfer, but they'll have to contend with the trip.

I think theres something going on with Sinister in the stretch not related to infirmity and I think he'd have beaten Cause to Believe by six but for the issue. He almost tried to do it again in the Bluegrass, but the jockey was all over him.

As far as a hot pace. That last one was hot and none of the Derby horses is going to want any of that. assuming a 2:02 Derby track he'll get away with 46:3 be clear by three and that will leave plenty in the tank.

If he broke poorly and got blocked, I'd start eating my ticket right then. But all bettors assume the risk of trouble.