Re: The Truth about SNS (720 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: May 02, 2006 05:10PM
Miff,
Not sure what you have against B&J. He has the 2 year old foundation of a Derby winner, running a 5 last year. His last race got down to a 0, which is definitely contender material here, unless you think Sinister Minister is going to pair up. I know that the Wood was over a sloppy track, but I don't believe that B&J is a "mudder", do you? I know he came home slow in the Wood, but the early pace in the wood and his breeding should alleviate 1 1/4 concerns. I know he comes in off a 3 point top, which isn't good, but which of Baffert's TRUE Derby contenders over the past 7-8 years have "bounced" in the Derby? How many have paired up or ran new tops? Having Baffert as your trainer here should alleviate some of the bounce concerns. Gomez gets off the fastest horse in the race to stick with B&J. What Baffert said BEFORE the Wood about B&J not being at his best over the cement-like West Coast tracks, and expecting him to run better on the eastern tracks is plausible. If you look at the "California closers" record in the Derby, there are some decent horses that couldn't close ground out west running over the cement, that moved forward at east coast tracks like Belmont and Churchill, that tend to play fairer.
All told, 12-1 looks about exactly right to me on Bob and John. He isn't the most likely winner, but he certainly fits amongs the top group, at least IMO>