Bellsbendboy,

I do like AP Warrior. My current strategy, which of course will change a dozen times before Saturday is:

Play the Oaks - Derby Double, keying WonderladyAnne with 4 Derby Horses:

SweetNorthernSaint
AP Warrior
Point Determined
Bob and John

WonderladyAnne figures about 8-1, so I can go 4 deep in the double. She got down to a "3" last time, which is the co-fastest in the race. Balance has gotten to that level once and Wait A While has run it three times. I think WonderLadyAnne can improve on Friday and will appreciate the expected fast pace.

As for the Derby itself, I think SweetNorthernSaint to be the most likely winner, but by a small margin. I don't think anybody is more than 12% or so to win the race. Since I expect SNS to be about 7-1 or so, I can't key him. I will probably be keying AP Warrior, Point Determined and Bob and John over themselves + 6 others (SNS, Bluegrass Cat, Jazil, Cause to believe, Brother Derek and Barbaro). About a grand. If Sunriver gets in, I use him in the Superfecta slots.

I think AP warrior is a bet at 18-1 or so. As you say, he beat B&J 2 out of 3, and if he can relax, should get a nice trip. I really believe that the California "closers" do well when they come east and get the fairer tracks. Hence, PD, B&J and AP being three of my horses). I am also drawing a line through his race in the SA Derby, where he chased a loose on the lead Brother Derek. He ran a "1" the race before and I expect and hope for a move forward from that level, which makes him a possible winner at juicy odds.