As we wait for the Derby figures, I have to say I am surprised to see that the numbers "floated" here for Barbaro are in the negative 1 or 2 range. For me, that was easily the most impressive Derby I have seen in my lifetime and I don't think my eyes deceived me. Accelerating during the last 1/4 mile, coming home in 24 1/5, beating all the horses easily, many with established levels of performance. I am sorry, but I don't buy that Bluegrass Cat only "paired up". I am somewhat partial, since I had a futures bet on BC, but I won't believe that his Derby was only the same as the race in Tampa. I also won't believe that Barbaro's derby was slower than Bandini's Bluegrass, Sinister Minister's Bluegrass, Sweet Northern Saint's Illinois Derby, and even Greeley's Galaxyy's Illinois Derby.

I make that point not to question the figures, since they aren't even out yet, but to lead into what to make of the Preakness. I guess you can look at it two ways. First off, you can concede that Barbaro is tons the best of this crop and will have no competition in the Preakness, as he won the Derby without seemingly being asked for his best, coming home in 24.1. However, since he will be 1-1 or so, there isn't a lot of value in having this opinion. Although it may be correct.

The other side to take is that a horse who has had a minimum of 5 weeks between all of his starts, having just run what I believe to be at least a 5 point top, now has to come back on 2 weeks rest and is possibly going to bounce like a rubber ball, at even money or so. Granted, watching Barbaro stride out effortlessly in the stretch of the Derby does not give one the impression that he will bounce in his next race, but we do have a pretty long history of data here at Thorograph of how 3 year olds have reacted to big figures in the past. Even Smarty Jones bounced a couple points in the Derby, I believe, although still winning easily.

Looking at the possibles for the Preakness, the races seems to set up like a jockey's race to me, unless you believe Barbaro is tons the best. The reason I say that is that even though you only have 6 or 7 probable starters, the four most likely winners all want to be in the same spot tactically, sitting off the shoulder of Like Now. Barbaro, Sweet Northern Saint, Brother Derek and probably Bernardini, all run their best races sitting right off the shoulder of the speed horses. Seeing which one gets the "catbird's seat", could be interesting.

I believe Brother Derek will be an overbet 2nd choice in the Preakness. His race in the Derby reminds me of Medaglia D'Oro a few years back. He was my Derby pick and he was a speed horse but he got in trouble out of the gate and got pinched back. He closed for a non-threatening 4th, but got lots of kudos for his courageous run in the stretch and how he was the only one making up any ground on War Emblem. He went off 5-2 in the Preakness and didn't run a step, not being able to run back to his big Derby race off the short rest, although he did run big in the Belmont 3 weeks later. I prefer a horse who is fast, and ran more of a "non-effort" in the Derby. I think Sweet Northern Saint fits this profile. We all know the horse is fast and he only ran for about a mile in the Derby before packing it in. We will see how he looks next week, but at 7-1 or so, in a short field, with only one bad race in his past performances, he could be an overlay, if you think Barbaro is beatable.