Caradoc Wrote:
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> Jimbo:
>
> There’s another way to analyze the Preakness and
> that is to conclude that Barbaro hasn’t
> established his dominance yet. Barbaro is only
> “tons the best of this crop” if we focus solely on
> the result in the Kentucky Derby, a dangerous
> practice. The same Barbaro was life and death to
> win the Florida Derby over an undistinguished
> bunch. If you have any confidence in the
> Thorograph figs, and you assume that Barbaro ran
> as fast as he did in the Derby, then Brother Derek
> has already run 4 races in the zero range or
> better while Barbaro has run only one. In fact,
> if the trips were reversed in the Derby, Brother
> Derek may have won the race and instead we’re now
> talking about how impressive a horse Brother Derek
> is. So, while Barbaro’s performance in the Derby
> may be everything you say it was, there’s not
> enough evidence yet for me to conclude he’s tons
> the best of this generation.
>
> And then there is the question of his short-term
> line coming into the Preakness. ANY new top in
> the Derby is probably not the ideal pattern coming
> into the Preakness, never mind a new top in
> negative territory. If you look in the Archives,
> there are ten Preakness contestants from 1992-2005
> which had run new tops in the Derby. Of those
> ten, none went forward in the Preakness, 4 paired
> (including Giacomo last year), 3 ran off races,
> and the other 3 X’d out. On average, those horses
> bounced 3½ points in the Preakness. Also, Barbaro
> has developed a lot in a short period of time
> culminating in a negtive number -– probably in the
> range of at least five points -- another factor
> against him.
>
> I’m not saying that Brother Derek is going to win
> the Preakness, but there is not nearly enough
> credit given to this horse for the remarkable race
> he ran in the Derby and the soundness of his line
> all spring long. If I told you the winner of the
> Preakness needs to run in the zero range, isn’t it
> more probable that BD runs that race than Barbaro,
> looking at their sheets and considering their
> respective short-term and long-term development?
>
>

I thoroughly and completely agree with your assessment... I've had this conversation with others about the strength of a fast/consistent line versus a huge jump-up and back on two weeks rest.

There is going to be a huge difference of opinion between TG and Sheets, because they still do not have BD going through his 2 yo top.