Mall: I thought Catalin's (and your) posts were excellent, and as a practical matter, I agree with you and him. But it is impossible to win an argument on this subject. Let me ask you this: If you could know everything there was to know about an upcoming race, what would your odds line look like? It wouldn't be necessary to have one, would it? I believe the problem is with the term "true odds." When we make a "true odds" line, aren't we really making an odds line on our own ignorance and fallibility? After all, one horse will win the race, and if we knew everything about an upcoming race, we would be able to identify this winner.