Mall: Unfortunately, there seems to be no disagreement here. Making an odds line is a modest act. (It is an admission that there are countless things we don't know.) Calling it a "true odds line" is not. The reason it's impossible to win an argument on this subject is that someone can always reply that he knew more about this particular race than you or I did. In other words, he can claim that he was closer to the 100 percent certainty available to someone who knew everything (including who would toss the rider) about an upcoming race.
In this case, "ignorance" means not knowing who would break slowly, who would get DQed, etc. We are all ignorant.

As for your question, I have a 12yo basset hound who cries whenever I leave the room. I hope to be stuck in CA for a while, but I would love to meet you at Saratoga eventually. Del Mar ain't even close.