Re: Is it just me (487 Views)
Posted by:
NoCarolinaTony (IP Logged)
Date: July 19, 2006 05:39PM
Jerry,
So I understand how the scoring will work, regardless of where the winner ranks (ie 6th by TG and 5th by Rags) the winner of the point in this case would be Rags?
Michaels point is correct, in that if you use three figures than all three are better than 2, 5 would be better than 3 and 10 would better yet still a form cycle or two.
I do understand your point, and could see why you did what you did (your example) but to take it a different way, the horse that has the average of 10 is also more likely to bounce to oblivion more than the horse with the average of 8. The score of 10 reflects that better than a 5 would as compared to the 8. It would be my opinion that the potentially "better" horse in this example is also more variable for some reason.
I really would like to understand the scoring part a little bit better.
I strongly believe you need a larger population than 2 of 3 data points to really get this study to be more accurate as a power rating of sorts. If you took 10 or 20 data points then tossing out a flier wouldn't hurt the analysis/projection or power number relecting a horses ability. It's not an easy task to do in the first place, and to simplify like this I think will cheapen the study a bit. I really don't have anything better to offer than use more data than less.
NC Tony
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