Re: derby (589 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 20, 2007 11:44AM
fkach Wrote:
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> "What we don't know is how he (Curlin) will
> respond to tougher internal fractions, classier
> horses, and the extra 1/4."
>
> I agree.
>
> I tend to toss these lightly raced promising
> horses that haven't beaten anybody when they show
> up in the Derby. I think racing in a very tough
> and deep 20 horse field with a large noisy crowd
> exposes a lot of seasoning issues.
>
Air Forbes Won (1982), Private Terms (1988), and Indian Charlie (1998) are all good examples of what you are talking about. All three were heavily bet favorites that were wise bet againsts (although Indian Charlie did get a piece of the trifecta).
> All that said, this does not look to be an
> especially tough group even though they are fairly
> consistent and there are a lot of horses with
> similar ability. If a horse like Curlin is ever
> going to get the job done, this might be the year.
>
Curlin, Circular Quay, and Street Sense have already run negative figures. Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday have already run zeros. Having 5 colts that have already run a zero or better is pretty impressive in April -- I think these horses would be strong candidates in most Derbies. What's more, with the exception of Curlin, none of these horses is a bounce candidate. In fact, I think all three of Pletcher's top horses are coming into the race with very nice patterns.
I suspect that the training community has taken a collective lesson from Zito's experience with Bellamy Road and Baffert's experience with Sinister Minister. Even if it has been true in the past that horses have generally not run new tops in the Derby, I would not be surprised to see some of the top contenders running new tops this year. As is evidenced by the discussion on this board, we are all in a new environment now. A lot of the top figure horses are coming into the race with patterns that suggest very strongly that a pair up is the worst they will do.