David-- on the question of the differences on individual horses, it's easy enough to figure out who messed up if you have a tape of the race, and a chart with the beaten lengths. You've made your own figures, but for those who have not, one path on one turn is worth one length, and two lengths is worth one point on both sets of figures. Since SS was rail/rail, it's easy to work off him to get figures. Take a look at the horses in question, and let us know what you find.

On Hard Spun-- once a horse pairs a top (as HS did as a 2yo on Ragozin) he has established a level, and at this point the horse has developed much more from his 2yo top on Ragozin than on TG, since we had him much faster last year. The 3yo patterns are very similar on both, so purely on the basis of patterns he is probably more likely to bounce on Ragozin. HOWEVER-- the last figure was very big on TG, which on that basis alone could cause a bounce. (I'll be getting into this in my Preakness comments, as I did last year about Barbaro). So overall it's a tough call as to which sheets have him looking better now.

And yes, one of us blew the Derby.