Jerry,

I'm not playing the race absent some bizarre spasm by the bettors. I don't do figures any more and don't have tapes of the race, other than the NBC broadcast, and it is impossible to track the path of each horse around both turns on that video. I am sure that the CD cameras capture it better.

As for Hard Spun, this is a great chance to sit back and watch a race since he'll be no value. I think he bounces regardless of whose line you use though for different reasons.