Re: Reasons (Scientific Method) (374 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: September 19, 2007 09:32PM
I still have the same question.
Does anyone know if there were any "bugs" affecting some of his horses?
I've seen some serious downturns in the past when a few horses in one barn got sick. Something like that would explain sub par performance in NY vs. elsewhere.
Obviously, the longer this downturn goes the worse it looks for him. However, we would need a stats expert to determine how likely this kind of downturn is when the hit rate is usually in the 25% range. Obviously, streaks are a normal part of the distribution, but this one is getting pretty severe and IMHO more of his horses have disappointed lately. Initially I thought people were overreacting because a lot of his horses at Saratoga were spotted poorly or overbet on his reputation.