Silver Charm wrote:

"TGJB you have now shed some light on why Chilluki was such a prohibitive at Gulfstream in the BC Juvenile Filly.
Your numbers showed her as being only modestly fast (straight 7's) and she had distance limitations. If Ragozin gave her a number in that first race then the Ragozin players had to be fooled into believing that she was cycling back to this number. Wonder if Ragozin gave his players a refund after the race was run?"

Silver: On the Ragozin Sheets, Chilukki never got back to her first race number during her 2 y.o. year and by the time the BC rolled around, her limitations had been grossly exposed on Ragozin sheets too. Her other numbers were no faster than the rest of the field and she was a big underlay on the Sheets. Anyone who was holding out for her to get back to that first number given what she had done in subsequent races deserved what they got.

I am not going to opine as to what the 'right' number was for her first race, but regardless of one's view, since she earned her number at 4 1/2f I don't see how one could have used that race to predict much of anything as she developed down the road. The number Ragozin gave her (a 6-, I believe), was the kind of number that figured to set her back for some time. She did, though, break through that first Ragozin number substantially as a 3 y.o.