Silver,

you wrote: "there are a lot of people out there who are not as smart as you and can't keep themselves from discounting that first race figure."
I don't think there was anything the Ragozin group could do to help those handicappers. A four and a half furlong race has little to do with a mile and a sixteenth race, and I am sure the Rags people pointed this out when they analyzed the race. I have no idea how accurate the Ragozin # in question was, but blaming that # for the low odds on Chilluki in the BC race is nonsense. Your logic would lead one to believe that Congaree was a lock on Rags in the Met Mile, because he was the fastest horse in the race. In fact, Congaree's Rag # in the Wood had very little to do with his brilliant performance in the mile race, as the Rags people admitted. Two different races with very different conditions. As for your analogy regarding the calendar, you might want to ask TGJB if he thinks he gets every number exactly correct. It's not an easy job these guys are doing, and the room for error is bigger than you think.