Re: Measuring The Variant Objectively.? (14872 Views)
Posted by:
Silver Charm (IP Logged)
Date: December 18, 2002 05:47PM
David,
And I don't have any issue with the way you handled Chilluki in the Breeders Cup either, as a matter a I think you are to be applauded. You actually have the ability to distill a bad speed number from a good one.
The reference I made to the Ragozin players and this Breeders Cup race was because I have the belief that Sheet/Graph players as a whole, control the tote. There is no way Thorograph players were betting her down to 6-5 because she was'nt even the fastest horse in the race, Surfside was.
You made reference to the fact that Ragozin gave Chilluki a 6 in her first start. OK, if I'm not mistaken there is generally about a two point difference in the Ragozin scale and Thorograph scale. This means that on the Thorograph scale Chilluki would have received a 4. Four days later, on the following Saturday, Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby and was given a 3.
Now Beyer gave her a 110 Speed Figure. The Champion Older Female that year was Beautiful Pleasure who generally ran Speed Figures in the range of 109-113.Do you see where I'm heading with this. There are a lot of people out there who are not smart as you (I mean that seriously)and can't keep themselves from discounting that first race figure. Lets' also add in the incredible hype that Baffert and his horses receive from his personal public relations team of Privman & Hammersly (now known as Privman, Hammersly & Moss)and now things begin to make sense.
You referred to the fact that Chilluki broke through her Ragozin two year-old top significantly as a three year-old. Go back and check when, because I'll bet you it was about fifteen months later. What kind of a form cycle is this? For a lot of horses fifteen months is an entire career. If you scratch out her first race figure what you have is horse who made a very logical progression throughout her two and three year old campaigns. Not that she bounced or regressed off that first race and it took her over a year to break through that top.
Finally, last night I went shopping and bought a Year 2003 calendar. When I opened it up I noticed the corresponding days and dates for the month of January were wrong. When I took the item back and asked for a refund they told me the other eleven months were right, and to quit complaining. Do you think I will continue to do business with people who produce this kind of work?