Forecasts. (829 Views)
Posted by:
Mall (IP Logged)
Date: February 21, 2003 10:34PM
Wasn't it one of the Hollywood moguls who used to say that it was unwise to make them, especially if they involved future events?
Blue Burner certainly has the kind of pattern I look to play for a 2+ forward move if the odds are right(15-1 min in this spot imho) and everything else falls into place, but I can't use him on top at 8-1. I think the analysis got it right in saying that BB has a "tendency" to lose ground, as in wide in every race, including a 5.5 furlong race from the inside post, and even after the addition of blinkers. At the same time, I expect BB to improve & would use him in the exotics.
I disagree that Mr John always reacts to tops. He didn't react to the 7.5 & he didn't react to the 5.25, & he has always improved 2nd out, which I expect him to do again here at bettable odds. It also seems as though the addition of blinkers may have cured his previous tendency to drift & swerve in the stretch. Besides, he still owes me quite a bit of money from the 4/21/01 dq, so I'm obligated to at least use him in exotics.
If he gets a decent trip, WC should run a number & is a strong win contender for Frank Alexander, an underrated horseman who should be in the Hall in my estimation. But as much as I like & respect Frank, & even though I think WC is the most likely winner, 5-1 seems awfully short on the win end in a race as competitive as this one, so I'll probably key him 1st & 2nd in exotics with the above two, with very little HH,as well as a lot more with an off the wall shot which I think has a legitimate chance to run a much improved number at odds which I think will be much higher than the 20-1ML.
Sure, Puzzlement is the slowest horse coming into the race. Sure, P needs to improve a lot to have a shot to even get a placing, but I don't see why he can't. He's very lightly raced, he's 2nd off a layoff, he's already won 2 of 3 at the distance, the pace scenario is okay, & his connections are solid. His pattern is similar to BB's, but his odds are going to be twice or more as high.
Best of luck to you as well Chris.