I new at this, no not at making a fool of myself with bad selections, but at posting my thoughts on the ROW so here goes.

Pletcher ran Left Bank at Gulf a few years ago in an allow race (first start at four) and he ran a Neg 3. Next race out at Keeneland the horse reacted so badly I thought he might be breaking down. Similar thing last year with Left Bank in first start in the Bold Ruler, then nowhere in the Met Mile.

Now similar pattern with HH first start at four so what happens today? Lets say he does'nt regress much, how about a neg 1 1/2.
He looks to be three wide around the first turn (ie-ground loss of what 1 to 2 lengths to another rival who is 1W, someone help me out here). He spots most of these horses 5 pounds, thats another length correct. We have'nt gotten around to projecting the 2nd turn.

So a rival who is saving ground and receiving the five pounds may only need a 0 to beat a faster HH with the right trip.

My selection is Windsor Castle who looks to get a groud saving trip around the first and second turn, then attempt to fan out into the middle of the track when they straighten for home (fingers crossed). This type of trip is in the trip comments on the TG sheet several times. When he remained inside he did not quite finish as well as he did when he got to the outside.

The 0-X-0-X mentioned by TG is a concern but maybe he is ready to step up. The bullet work in 59 indicates some level of readiness. So all in all I'm taking the 5-1.