first, thanks for bringing this card up. this is great thought and discussion fodder.

how many variants did you end up using for the lrl 2/22 card?

i don't have a track model for lrl, but i loaded the 2/22 data into a generic model just for grins. for the non 3yo races, i had:

-5 (6f), -3 (7f), -9 (9f), 4 (6f), -11 (7f), -10 (9f), 3 (7f), -22 (7f)

these could be off 3-4 points, but the discussion is still the same.

i use fatigue models. (think of combination of pace and figure approaches.) using these, the races appear reasonable. although, even with that, the xtra heat race does require a small leap of faith because the variant on that race has the least variance among the entrants. i would probably just do a sprint/route split -6/-9