i saw the same thing in the last race on the card. i tossed the 3yo races because i saw in an earlier discussion that you do that - just to remain consistent.

the variance from my fatigue models look like this:

1.09 / .38 / 1.05 / 2.83 / 1.46 / 1.17 / 2.15 / 3.64 / -.92 / 5.53 / 6.81

this is one of those cards that make you a fool or a genius.