Mall - The hard track may indeed have been a factor. I have never figured out why a trainer would want to ship early to the Derby circus anyway unless you loved the limelight ala Lukas or Baffert. I think you are right that Funny Cide's success will probably lead to a lot more late shippers in future runnings.

MO - I was waiting for someone to call me out on the "Too Fast Too Early" business. I still think it is a valid guideline and I never suggested it be anything other than - just another factor to consider in the context of the overall picture of the Derby. Anyone who tries to turn handicapping into a series of hard and fast "rules" is destined for failure. The best handicappers consider all the factors and data and make their decisions in the proper context.

I have to admit that given the data, I could never have played Funny Cide in the Future book pool several months ago even at 93-1 (congrats to the many hundreds of thousands who now appear to have done just that - only kidding :-) but it was not that hard for me to make a strong case that he had a good chance of winning the Derby after all the preps were in and you could compare his overall line to all the other Derby entrants.

If I owned or trained top 3yos I would carefully read the post-race comments by Funny Cide's trainer regarding all the patience and tough choices that the connections made once they knew they had a potential Derby horse. Decisions that helped mold the future Derby winner including passing on the Breeder's Cup and passeing on the Remson and passing on the Great State Challenge. All to avoid too much early stress and let the horse develop at his own pace. Lots of lessons to be learned there.

Cheers.

Chris