>But if you have any EVIDENCE that a fast pace improves the FIGURES of closers, present it please.<

I made my own Beyer-like speed and pace figures for years and I currently look at several sets regularly (that include the track variant used).

I spent most of my reseach time years ago looking at high levels stakes horses because I believe they are more consistent. That way I would have a better chance to isolate pace as factor in final time.

Over the years I ran into numerous examples of closers that put in lifetime top figures off a duel in front of them. Much more than I would have expectd to see were it a random occurrence. The horses invariably went back to their normal figures afterwards. You categorize that as a bounce. I categorize lot of performance moves like that as a bounce also, but not these. I was suspicious.

So I started thinking about why this could be happening. In observing the way races developed, I came to understand that closers also have periods in a race where they are either being used hard or not to get or improve position. One might call it a duel behind the leaders to catch up.

So you are right. It is a theory. But it is a theory that is consistent with observations of duels on the front end and what happens to the horses. It is also consistent with what would happen if you and I went to the track and clocked ourselves under various pace scenarios. It's quite logical. If I run too fast and hard in the middle of the race, it will hurt me.

>give us examples where it will happen in advance. Otherwise we are back to mystical handicapping theories like class. <

That is impossible. I can rarely predict with "certainty" how a race will develop. However, I do try to gain an edge where I can.

What I can do is after the fact is tell you that a specific horse (closer) had a perfect trip behind collapsing duelers and was able to improve his position mid race without any extreme effort. Therefore, the figure he earned under those optimum conditions is less likely to be duplicated. I would also say that if you made a separate variant for that race because the final time did not seem to fit in with the rest of the day, you might be adjusting that time for the impact of the pace and NOT for the track speed without even knowing it. (read that sentence again) Therefore, you would getting the right answer for the wrong reason.

What I would suggest to you is that whenever you see a very slow or very fast pace and/or extreme battles on the front end to make note of it when you actually make the figure.

In the mean time, next time a major horse that we are all familiar with earns a huge figure under ideal circumstances or a really bad one under terrible conditions, I will point out the race and horse and why I think the figure is an incorrect refelction of its prior performance beforehand.