>Festin<

Yes. Thank You. I was actually going to use the same exact example, but held back because I expected that no one would be convinced by that one race.

IMO, anyone that thinks Festin "just happen to peak that day" is in "handicapping denial" just as Andy Beyer was back in the 70s when he insisted in Picking Winners that pace "never" matters. That was too silly a statement to even bother arguing about. Festin always suffered from a style deficiency. I happened to have been there and bet him that day and you could visually see how easily he moved past a bunch of dead horses that raced on or near the lead that day. That one was obviously not a bounce performance. It was a performance that was aided by a perfect pace for a deep closer.

Festin continued to run well afterwards. However, he went back to running figures (Beyers at least) right in the same range as he had been prior to the Nassau in his next 4 starts. One of them was another winning effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He did not go way off form or anything. He just never had another 44.2 and dead horses to run at.