I agree with most of what you say, Hoarsehorseplayer, but my pt was not that rebate players would show a 5% profit with reduced rebates if the takeout was lowered to 10%. According to published reports, daily settlements for players at RGS are minus 10%, which means that at the biggest rebate operation players overall are breaking even with their 10% rebate. Rather, I think betting volume at tracks & otherwise from existing players would increase dramatically if the takeout was lowered for everyone. I also think that a lowered takeout might put a serious enough dent in the business of the rebaters that tracks could reclaim action which would make a bigger contribution to purses. The signal price, as I understand it, was agreed on at a time when no one anticipated that 80% or more of betting volume would be generated off-site. I think the tracks would like to figure out a way to put the genie back in the bottle, & think it noteworthy that a number of yrs ago NYRA did propose a rebate program. As with their recent request to lower the takeout on straight wagers to 13%, the request was rejected by regulators. It is also interesting that the HBPA has announced that they plan to set up their own rebate operation.

RGS has also made the argument that their rebates have created new players, but I think ExPlayer's position on this issue makes more sense. It's just one man's opinion,of course, but it seems to me that the learning curve is too long & too hard for that to happen. I have also seen research which tends to indicate that newcomers are introduced to the game by someone, be it a father,uncle,or friend, whose opinion they respect. The related question of why a certain percentage of those introduced to the game become regulars is also an interesting one, & was the subject of a study in New Zealand approx 5yrs ago. The findings were essentially that there are two personality traits which separate horseplayers from other types of gamblers:(1)a high percentage are very sociable; & (2)most think they are smarter than others.

Logically, one would think that the money churning scenario would apply, but apparently there are restrictions on the rebates(for example,certain place & show bets are not eligible), & I personally haven't seen evidence that this is the case. I think P.Eckhart's pt is a valid one, as it seems that the late odds drops disproportionately involve low price favorites. At the same time, one of the $1.1 million pk6 tix yesterday was sold to an RGS player, so one might conclude based on the little evidence available that the rebate shops are made up of a variety of different players who are pursuing different betting strategies.

On a completely different topic, best of luck this coming Fri & Sat to everyone who qualified for the finals. Enjoy it, & don't waste your precious time walking around the room trying to figure out who is using which handicapping product.