You're right it definitely isn't as pronounced. I also did it about 4 years ago using the results from about 15000 american races and would've posted them instead if I hadn't changed computer in the interim and lost them.

The pari-mutuel machine doesn't have the additional risk aversion to insider trading on longshots like flesh and blood bookmakers, which accounts for a deal of the difference. Nevertheless, the f/l bias was there and it was pronounced. So we'll have to agree to disgree on this point.

Rebates are bound to reduce the f/l bias and not just from wiseguy action. So would takeout reductions and in a non-linear fashion. Think of this rebate corollory - when UK bookmakers stopped surcharging their customers 9% (due to govt. abolishing General Betting Duty) total handle went up, predictably. But also, significantly, punters began to bet proportionately more on favs, so much so that horseracing profit margins are significantly down. (But there is compensation by the increase in handle) The point is that in this case it was not organised behavior it was 'organic'. (That is why I'd guess your wiseguy computer traders wouldn't be keen on takeout reductions.) Why proportionately more money will be bet on favs through rebates or takeout reductions is because takeout itself does not affect everyone equally. Who pays most for takeout? Rebates or reductions cause a greater incentive to bet on favs. I have given the example above to show it. Also, how else would we get to an efficient market at near 0% takeout, but to eliminate the f/l bias and to eliminate it means proportionately more money will be bet organically on favs. The lack of f/l bias in Hong Kong if it is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, I would describe as entirely artificial. Artificial in the sense that there are serious minded people (who know fully about the f/l bias) that are deliberately driving their market to theoretical efficiency with some obvious gain. The f/l bias I would describe as an entirely understandable human market inefficency caused by the unaturally high and skewed costs of market entry. (And of course for some like Explayer these barrier costs are judged too high) (PS When I refer to favs, I dont literally mean "THE fav")

Sincere apologies to all for this drivel, I am getting boring beyond belief now. Time to go, back (hopefully) in October, to see Russian Rhythm take over the tiara from the great Islington. Cheers.