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Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (671 Views)
Posted by: P.Eckhart (IP Logged)
Date: January 19, 2004 12:13AM

PRICE ROI
4-6 -1.9%
8-11 -2.3%
4-5 -9.4%
5-6 -14.1%
10-11 -2.3%
Evens -3.4%
11-10 -6.5%
6-5 -6.5%
5-4 +3.9%
11-8 -6.9%
6-4 -6.5%
------
snip
------
9-2 -12.1%
5-1 -11.5%
6-1 -14.2%
7-1 -19.6%
8-1 -19.2%
------
snip
------
14-1 -33.8%
16-1 -37.7%
20-1 -37.3%
25-1 -47.3%

This is the so called 'favourite longshot bias' market inefficiency in all its glory. This is how you would do blindly backing all horses at these starting prices over the last 10 years. Ok, it's a UK example but it wont be hugely different for you. After all, the f/l bias was originally found in US pari-mutuel markets over 30 years ago. Currently, sane and serious rebaters channel their action in one direction only, on to favourites.

But as you tinker or hopefully root and branch prune your system, change will occur that will alter the dynamics of the market.
It is entirely predictible what will happen to the market if you do X or Y, only the extent of the change is debatable.

For instance if a 20% take actually did result in a loss on favs of -7% and on longshots of -33%, would a 10% take result in a loss on favs of -3.5% and on longshots -16.5% ie a linear change, or would it be something else. I'd say 'else' and in a specific direction, what I can't say is by how much. Either way, 10% or lower would would be decent step in the right direction. But from here, it looks like tinkering is what the 'horsemen' have in mind, if anything.



Subject Written By Posted
REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (987 Views) OPM 01/16/2004 12:41AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (604 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 01/16/2004 07:20AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (726 Views) asfufh 01/16/2004 10:16AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (554 Views) OPM 01/16/2004 10:42AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (652 Views) brokerstip 01/16/2004 04:06PM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (700 Views) OPM 01/18/2004 12:54AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (643 Views) asfufh 01/18/2004 10:10AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (633 Views) Mall 01/18/2004 02:24PM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (551 Views) derby1592 01/18/2004 03:07PM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (531 Views) ExPlayer 01/17/2004 12:26AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (692 Views) P.Eckhart 01/17/2004 07:44AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (626 Views) Mall 01/18/2004 10:05AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (671 Views) P.Eckhart 01/19/2004 12:13AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (631 Views) Mall 01/17/2004 08:28AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (623 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 01/17/2004 09:46AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (583 Views) cozzene 01/17/2004 11:26AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (593 Views) ExPlayer 01/17/2004 10:39PM
Response to Explayer (Rebates) (5744 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 01/18/2004 11:49AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (662 Views) 01/20/2004 10:38AM
Re: REBATES OK FOR BIG PLAYERS (649 Views) P.Eckhart 01/20/2004 01:51PM


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