Every race has different variables, but Fire Slam's stock went up a little on the basis of the one mile Southwest Stakes in my opinion. Two Down Automatic finished second in that race beaten only 3/4's of a length by Smarty Jones. At the same distance Firm Slam had beaten Two Down by about 3.

Two Down is a Smoke Glacken and although he was getting to Smarty, an El Prado was getting to him. I thought the time of the Southwest and an allowance race won by Pure American were both good. Gran Prospect was crushed in that other race.

Smarty looked a little vulnerable, but he won and there is some evidence/reason to indicate it may not have been his best effort. So we'll see.

You got to love the New Orleans Handicap, other than a Breeders Cup Race, when has a finer group of horses been gathered? I have no idea what I'm gonna do and I've been factoring this race for a week.

I recently stated I discount what a trainer says about his horse. Now here is Dollase just absolutely brimming with glowing words about Ten Most Wanted. The man can flat out train and the horse is a good horse. But what flattened me was that he stated Ten lost the Derby because he had a vertebra go out of place after a bump during the race and that he couldn't hardly jog afterwards. What the hell is that? He also thinks an even worse bump with Funny Cide threw him out of his game on Breeders Cup Day:

http://drf.com/news/article/53663.html


So Ten doesn't like contact? Tuff, get used to it. I think they ought to maul him. I think they all ought to crowd around shouting: "my back hurts" and see if his back goes out just due to the psychic stress of it all. This is the big leagues Wally and theres no crying in baseball. Theres no stupid excuses either. If this horse really has that gimp a back it could go out at any time. If that story is true this horse is a lost bet or a carcass on the track waiting to happen. Note he lost both those races coming from far outside and I'm assuming the bumps occured while positioning to save ground. I wonder if he'll be impacted by a deja vu type flashback Sunday when he breaks from outside and tries for position? Or will he just drop way back to save his aching vertebrae?

This horse may be the favorite. I was all over his p.p.s and I like him, but heck I like everyone in this race. Sometimes you do whats called "Chaos Handicapping". Theres a calculated risk you'll get burned by it, but after listening to the Dollase tripe theres no way in hades I'm betting on this horse. I don't even care if theres some scintilla of truth to his inane comments.

And then there were seven.

Hut one, Hut two

lol

CtC



Post Edited (02-28-04 21:03)