The big three (FC, PR and TMW) will pull all the money in the New Orleans Hdcp and of those three, TMW certainly looks like the best but you have to wonder if he will fire right off the bench (his TG stats say Dollase is 50/50 to have his horses run a top or better off the bench). He indeed may be one of the top handicap horses this year along with Perfect Drift and MDoro but I would be willing to take a shot against him in here although I do think he is indeed the one to beat.

The value looks to be Saint Liam. At the weights, he is faster than all but TMW's isolated top (he is as fast as TMW). He had a solid line as a 3yo before Dutrow and has really "blossomed" as a 4yo since joining his new stable. There is always a chance he may react to his last 2 big efforts but this is probably the best horse in a stable that has has had about 50% of its last 88 starters equal or better their tops and he comes into the race after three nice LOCAL works with the last an eye-catching, breezing bullet in 58 and 2/5 over a track that can be tricky for some to handle but seems to suit the Saint just fine. He also has a good post and should be able to work a good trip.

He could easily go off well above his morning line of 8/1 given the popularity of the big 3 and that this will be his first stakes start of the year. Finally, note that Dutrow has had prior success shipping to FG in the past with 9 of 14 starters equaling or bettering their effective tops.

It should be a fun race to watch and the fact that it is not being run at a "Magna" track makes it that much nicer.

Good luck to everyone (particularly those who key on Saint Liam:-)

Chris