I have a tough time getting involved in races where major contenders under ordinary circumstances (like TMW and Peace Rules) are either coming off a layoff or returned quite a bit short. You never really know what to expect.

I think virtually everyone is almost ready throw in the towel on Funny Cide. If those other 2 are off their best game (which is possible), he has a chance to win here even if he doesn't improve to his peak. IMHO, that last race wasn't as bad as it looks. He made a serious bid against the best horse in the country (MDO) before weakening. I think there's no one in here like that at this time. At a square price, I could get interested. No idea what his odds will look like. One thing is for certain. If he doesn't get a big piece here, then he's a bet against from here on out. The reason I am slightly interested is that I think the towel may have been thrown in by many handicappers one race too soon. It is not clear yet.

Sir Cherokee is also interesting. His Ark Derby last year was a darn good race at that time of year for a 3yo. He has returned with two wins against weaker, but I think he has something left in the tank. The recent work was sharp. He may be ready for a lifetime top. It's a matter of if that will be good enough to win against these. At a big price he's also worth a look on top and underneath.

I think after that the race is pretty wide open and obvious - everyone's merits and question marks are clear. I am unlikely to bet any of the others unless something looks really screwy on the board.

Nice race.



Post Edited (02-29-04 22:07)