handicapping mistakes 101 (630 Views)
Posted by:
Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: February 29, 2004 08:28PM
1. Seattle Fitz - on his best he fit well here, especially at the weights with JR aboard from post 1. HOWEVER, there really was no resaon to believe that SF would be at his best. mclaughlin has been cranking up his horses at GP to the max, and on three weeks rest off a brutal race, some regression should have been expected. add in the ship, and a bit of pattern handicapping should have made this one too iffy. bad handicapping
2. Funny Cide - expected finish, and a relatively easy toss. his derby run was a perfect stalking trip over a speed favoring strip, and his preakness run was wildly overrated. we have seen his top going nine furlongs or longer.... maybe time to cut back to a mile (or battle the state breds).
3. Spanish Empire - drifting late in his fast race, then tires next, and now wants to stretch out against these?
4. Saint Liam - predicted finish. would have won if bailey had not wacked his horse lefty and knocked SL sideways at the end. bailey has pulled this trick hundereds of times though, and for some reason unknown to me, will never even get an inquiry for doing it (the inquiry today was for the first tyrn incident, he blinked because prado claimed).
5. Joe made a nice prediction a few days ago, predicting PR would return to his best. with the decent rest, and ship out to La, that could have been expected. I thought there might be somewhat of a speed duel here, and i thought PR might get a bit leg weary at the end. in fact did get just a bit tired (13.1 last eighth), but bailey was so brilliant getting the horse to relax up until the stretch run, that all but two of the horses were eliminated by the top of the stretch. nice odds today, and a sharp handicapper could have scored big. bad handicapping here.
6. Sir Cherokee - some speed in the race, but no reason to expect he would get to close into a wild :45 speed duel. aside from the Ark derby, he just looked too slow. expected finish.
7. Comic Truth - expected finish. too slow.
8. Ten Most Wanted - bad trip was possible. a stalker starting from the outside with four or five other stalkers is bound to get a bad trip. i used the horse because he was the fastest, but a better gambler would have tossed the horse at low odds. bad handicapping.
i had SL in most spots, but misreads on SF and PR cost me.