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handicapping mistakes 101 (630 Views)
Posted by: Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: February 29, 2004 08:28PM

1. Seattle Fitz - on his best he fit well here, especially at the weights with JR aboard from post 1. HOWEVER, there really was no resaon to believe that SF would be at his best. mclaughlin has been cranking up his horses at GP to the max, and on three weeks rest off a brutal race, some regression should have been expected. add in the ship, and a bit of pattern handicapping should have made this one too iffy. bad handicapping
2. Funny Cide - expected finish, and a relatively easy toss. his derby run was a perfect stalking trip over a speed favoring strip, and his preakness run was wildly overrated. we have seen his top going nine furlongs or longer.... maybe time to cut back to a mile (or battle the state breds).
3. Spanish Empire - drifting late in his fast race, then tires next, and now wants to stretch out against these?
4. Saint Liam - predicted finish. would have won if bailey had not wacked his horse lefty and knocked SL sideways at the end. bailey has pulled this trick hundereds of times though, and for some reason unknown to me, will never even get an inquiry for doing it (the inquiry today was for the first tyrn incident, he blinked because prado claimed).
5. Joe made a nice prediction a few days ago, predicting PR would return to his best. with the decent rest, and ship out to La, that could have been expected. I thought there might be somewhat of a speed duel here, and i thought PR might get a bit leg weary at the end. in fact did get just a bit tired (13.1 last eighth), but bailey was so brilliant getting the horse to relax up until the stretch run, that all but two of the horses were eliminated by the top of the stretch. nice odds today, and a sharp handicapper could have scored big. bad handicapping here.
6. Sir Cherokee - some speed in the race, but no reason to expect he would get to close into a wild :45 speed duel. aside from the Ark derby, he just looked too slow. expected finish.
7. Comic Truth - expected finish. too slow.
8. Ten Most Wanted - bad trip was possible. a stalker starting from the outside with four or five other stalkers is bound to get a bad trip. i used the horse because he was the fastest, but a better gambler would have tossed the horse at low odds. bad handicapping.

i had SL in most spots, but misreads on SF and PR cost me.




Subject Written By Posted
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Re: Will the Saint come marching in??? (602 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/29/2004 03:20AM
Re: Will the Saint come marching in??? (612 Views) mbeychok 02/29/2004 09:34AM
Re: Will the Saint come marching in??? (562 Views) Silver Charm 02/29/2004 01:01PM
Re: Will the Saint come marching in??? (534 Views) bdhsheets 02/29/2004 03:13PM
Re: Will the Saint come marching in??? (607 Views) mholbert 02/29/2004 05:52PM
Re: Oaklawn and The New Orleans (623 Views) 02/29/2004 04:00PM
Re: Oaklawn and The New Orleans (567 Views) Michael D. 02/29/2004 04:15PM
Re: Oaklawn and The New Orleans (588 Views) 02/29/2004 05:31PM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (610 Views) Silver Charm 02/29/2004 05:53PM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (644 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/29/2004 06:43PM
handicapping mistakes 101 (630 Views) Michael D. 02/29/2004 08:28PM
Re: handicapping mistakes 101 (613 Views) 02/29/2004 10:05PM
Bias, Fouls, Figs, Trips and Trainers (632 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/01/2004 01:05AM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (581 Views) colt 02/29/2004 09:06PM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (645 Views) Silver Charm 03/01/2004 07:52AM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (570 Views) Bill Thompson 03/01/2004 01:24PM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (654 Views) Know Nothing 03/01/2004 04:49PM
Re: The New Orleans--Take HimDown (596 Views) P-Dub 03/02/2004 12:56AM
Pdub and new orleans (571 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/02/2004 01:43AM
Re: Pdub and new orleans (631 Views) TGAB 03/02/2004 09:01PM
Re: Pdub and new orleans (658 Views) P-Dub 03/02/2004 11:27PM
Ron Hansen (765 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/03/2004 06:06AM
Re: Oaklawn and The New Orleans (668 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/29/2004 04:52PM
Re: Oaklawn and The New Orleans (584 Views) jbelfior 03/01/2004 01:05PM
Re: Oaklawn and The New Orleans (619 Views) Michael D. 03/01/2004 04:16PM


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