Going to have limited internet access for the next week or so, but I thought I would toss a few early thoughts up on the board for discussion.

As I've said before, I think getting a 1 1/4 and getting 1 1/8 are two different things. The "Miler" type colts can sometimes stretch their speed to 1 1/8 under the right conditions and look really good doing it, but it's just not as likely at a 1 1/4. So IMO it’s best to keep that in mind while handicapping the race. Sure, there are always colts who outrun their breeding and the Churchill strip could be biased and... But this is a game of percentages and I feel you have to structure your bet accordingly. Who do you think actually moves up at the distance?

I also think that watching or knowing how these colts train over the Churchill strip the week or so before the race is one of the best ways to help separate the final contenders from the pretenders. Having a clocker on site at Churchill used to be a huge edge for me, but we are living in the new information age. Mike Welsch's daily reports from Churchill are actually pretty good. If you can't be there or don't know someone who is, I would watch those daily videos. And remember, it’s not just how they work, its how they come out of it that also really matters.

With that in mind, here’s a few thoughts about the top couple of choices.

California Chrome really isn't bred to be a classic distance horse, but on the other hand he hasn't really done anything to make me feel like the Derby distance is definitely out of the question. I don’t think you are going to hear many people say they think the 1 ¼ will move him up though. It's been a while since we had a Derby favorite that is as heavily raced as him. Nice colt has really come into his own and blossomed this winter and early spring. Can rate or go to the lead, responds well to his rider's hands, can throw in a devastating sustained burst at the top of the lane that has been a winning move during his past few races. I suppose he's a deserving favorite. On the negative, he's never ran a race outside of California and he's going to have to ship halfway across the country for this one. Also, from watching his races, I don't think he likes to be behind horses. He will rate outside, OFF horses, but he doesn't seem to want to take dirt or sit behind them. That usually means wide trip, and in a 20 horse field with lots of early speed that could mean he runs a big figure and still loses. He’s also not the most consistent out of the gate. The last time Chrome lost he broke from the 1 post, hopped at the start and never seemed to get comfortable trying to come from behind horses. So when he drew inside for the San Felipe his connections took no chances and got on him right out of the gate. I really wish we were going to be able to see this one train for at least a full week and with a serious work over the Churchill strip. But we won’t.

I think Wicked Strong is the likely 2nd betting choice and also deservedly so. This colt showed some talent at 2 and was training up a storm, and I mean a storm as if he might be something really special, leading up to his 3 year old debut. But everything went wrong in the Holy Bull as he got roughed up pretty bad and had to drop out of the race. It's a total toss on his sheet IMO. He came back a month later and caught an extremely glib and speed biased track on Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream Park. I think he ran very well after breaking from a tough outside post and managed to pass a few horses down the stretch at a distance that is probably not as far as he wants to go and a track that really didn't suit his style. You won't find a colt in this race that is better bred for the 1 1/4 than this one. In the Wood he showed a lot of professionalism tucking in behind horses and saving ground through the 1st turn, then switched out and went pretty wide on the 2nd turn but sustained that run down the stretch through a pretty fast final 3/16ths to win going away once he finally leveled out. I'm told he also worked very well the other day and showed more early speed than he usually does in the AM. For a stretch runner, that can often be a positive sign of pending improvement and a horse that is peaking. On the negative, I didn't like how he was a little green coming down the stretch in the Wood, and I would rather have seen a stronger rally to overcome that glib track on FOY day to indicate he is something special. As a confirmed stretch runner he's also going to need a pace to run at, which he probably will get, and a fairly clear path to run through if he's going to win. It will be very interesting to see how he trains and gets over the Churchill strip. It's still too early, but if someone put a gun to my head right now and asked who is your Derby key, he would be it for me.

Hoppertunity ran well in the Rebel and is reasonably bred for the distance. Bob Baffert, of course, also has a lot of Derby experience and would seem to know how to get them ready to peak on the first Saturday in May. After his nice score in the Rebel this one was deliberately geared down for the SA Derby. That’s not to say he was held back, he just wasn’t fully cranked as the connections knew they had enough points to get in the Derby already and didn’t need to fire another top effort. I’m not sure what that is going to do to his sheet. But how this one trains and acts leading up to the race will probably be the key for me whether I use him or not.

Vicar’s In Trouble is a tiny colt with some talent that wired the LA Derby after he got loose on a fairly easy lead. He had no chance in the Risen Star breaking from the 13 post and getting a tough a trip all the way around. Other than that he really hasn’t done anything wrong, but I think he’s more of sprinter/miler type and would really need to show me something at Churchhill in the AM.

Dance with Fate was pointed towards the Blue Grass and won it. Now connections take a shot in Louisville. Can’t say I blame them, but I think his future is on the Grass or Poly.

Danza came out of nowhere to win the Ark Derby at 41-1 for Pletcher. People knocking his chances in the Derby due to suspect breeding, but I’m not so sure I agree with that as he has some stamina influences in his pedigree. Came home a fast final 1/8th in the Ark Derby as well. But it’s Pletcher in Louisville. So let’s see how he looks and acts leading up to the race. If he starts to fall apart or show signs of tailing off, well…

Ditto on Intense Holiday.

Samraat is tough, gritty, always fires, and IMO will really be up against it at 1 ¼ in Louisville. I feel he will need to catch a biased track to win. Minor player.

Ride on Curlin is very well bred for the distance and get’s Calvin, which will hurt his price. He didn’t run poorly in the Ark Derby and the 1 ¼ probably moves him up. Will have to see how he seems to act coming up to the race.

I look forward to seeing the early sheets and to the discussion over the next two weeks.