Re: A couple of early thoughts about Derby (850 Views)
Posted by:
TreadHead (IP Logged)
Date: April 20, 2014 08:44PM
I would be playing Commanding Curve long before Candy Boy, has similar if not slightly better dirt figs and better bred for distance. Looks very similar to Giacomo, MTB, Golden Soul etc, with similar running style and excuse, racing on speed favoring strips all winter as a closer and ready to explode on Derby Day.
I went back a few years in the archives and of those very few horses that have moved forward 2 or more points on Derby Day (edit- clarified, set 2pt new tops at least), they almost overwhelming fit the category of off-the-pace runners stuck on tracks they had no hope of performing on prior to the Derby. Had to go back to Hard Spun to find a speed horse that ran a big new top in the Derby, and even his was off a poly race at TP, which we all know can be a powerful angle anyway going poly to dirt.
I realize Commanding Curve is not in the field yet, but it would be highly unusual for something to not happen to someone in the top 20 between now and then, be it an injury or connections deciding it would be bad for the horse, so he is practically a lock to make the race. Not sure he can win, but well within possibility of doing a GoldenSoul-like trifecta effort.