Good Luck to T-Graph in the feature at Aqueduct Sunday. Some graded stakes black type would certainly improve the value of U.K. Trick. She looks like she wants the distance.

I reviewed the Fla. Derby day in the Red Board. I was very surprised T-Graph did not have that Fountain of Youth as a clear top for Read the Footnotes. I back doored a bet believing it was, though I've certainly learned its better to be lucky than good. I know this borders on proprietary matter, but is anyone at T-Graph inclined to discuss the variants and possible "break offs" for the Fountain of Youth card? My sense is that you did not make the variant difference between one and two turn races as large as I thought it to be and that you may have factored a track that was speeding up on FOY day. Am I mistaken?

I still have to analyze the Fla. Derby card but I do know that Suave ran faster than Friend's Lake. I scared myself on that bet the only horse I put over Value Plus was Friend's Lake, but I liked him. I liked that Spend a Buck mare mother of his and I liked the race two back and I knew he acted up horribly before the Holy Bull. He did again yesterday and I was cringing watching it because he was my exotics value maker.

Tenatively, my concerns about Value Plus not really wanting that distance were validated, but I had to bet Pletcher with the day he was having. I let him get away with Newfoundland later though. I'm still waiting to view the Red Board and see what T-Graph says. There was a day when I would have bet RTF yesterday. I would have been all over him in first in exotics keys. And I have to say the lessons I've learned here have been invaluable to finding race opportunity, (When I can remove my bias to apply them). Still without the back door perfecta I would have lost for the day. I made some bets early with a "two turn speeding up" theory and it wasn't validated. The Caiman bet was based on that theory.

I still think RTF is a good horse, but I think his FOY took the starch out of him. he was only beaten 4 lengths, so he could be of value next time. However the possibility exists that just like Value Plus he was struggling with that last 1/16th.



Post Edited (03-14-04 04:11)