Re: (605 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: March 15, 2004 04:47PM
I'm not trying to convince you of anything, least of all that a race you hit throwing out the favorite, and using a 35-1 shot, was a bad idea. I used the winner, but not the second horse-- Pletcher is killing me, again in the Next Move.
An 8:00 wind means going towards 8:00, behind them on the long straightaway for sprints.
What I meant when I said I didn't cut the race loose was that the track in general was speeding up late in the card, not just for that race. I had it almost 2 points faster in the 9th than the first (both 2 turns), another 2 1/2 faster for the FOY (11th). The sprints got about 2 points faster between the 4th and the 12th.
I don't know about other track supts, but Porcelli takes moisture content readings-- unfortunately not race by race, which is what would be needed to really work with this stuff. One of the scientists I mentioned in my expo presentation (Mick Peterson) is embarking on a large study of track surfaces, and may be taking those and other readings. He is the one who said "I suspect that your information regarding the performance of horses, even given the other uncontrolled variables, may be the best data available", so I offered him our data to use in a blind test. So far he has shown no interest, but I'm going to ask him again.
TGJB