Re: (581 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: March 14, 2004 07:04PM
Interesting
The DRF had the one turn variant an "07" the two turn variant a "14". Which is roughly 7 lengths difference. You're implying that yours was much less. I have to admit I'm not up on recent GP pars, but I've watched 10,000 races there and a 1:21:2 is as rare as Osama bin Laden, while a 1:42 and change, is as common as detainees at Guantanamo. What is also rare are fractions that go 21:1 and 43 and change. That is cooking, Hallandale ain't Hollywood. I believe that the variant is sometimes revealed in the fractions as much as the final time and granting that these were developing 3 year olds none of the sprinters had ran the fractions they ran on FOY day. NONE. (I take that back Deputy Storm had run as fast at 6 marks and less on wet tracks - FOY day of course he was going seven marks.)
I looked for John Chance's "RTF is this years Trust n' Luck" comments. I didn't see them, he must have made a personal visit. I don't recall Trust and Luck winning graded stakes at two and three at different tracks. I don't recall him beating a horse that had emerged as the leading West Coast equine and fighting tooth and nail down the stretch to prevail on heart with the leading East coast equine. If he was saying "RTF is not gonna run well this race because he's not good or fast enough with this crowd and that those respective -0, 1/2's were inaccurate because other horses in the race, that had run lesser figures, were actually faster or would improve more on Florida Derby day" all I can say is that Luck beats Skill every single time. It could be he was saying that like Trust n' Luck, RTF is gonna bounce off his big FOY effort and I agreed with that.
I hope RTF stays sound. A real big effort can knock a horse goofy and I think it possible that the damage has been done for RTF and that regardless of his 10 mark abilities he won't be able to show them by May 1st. But if he stays sound, I'm confident the actual performance RTF gave in the FOY will be revealed in races later this year.
On your scale I would have anticipated RTF's FOY to be at least a negative 2.
Congrats on U.K Trick's graded Black Type, I know you wanted more but shes got room to move forward and it was a start.
Post Edited (03-14-04 20:05)