Michael, I don't profess to have the greatest eye for conformation and computer viewing of the horses is the worst thing about betting away from the track, but from what I've seen of RTF he is certainly not built like a sprinter. But I will grant that Friends Lake is built like a greyhound. Here are the raw fractions from Fla. Derby Day:

3yo, MSW, 22.34, 45.34, 1:10.72, 1:23.80
3yo, NW1X, 22.02, 44.30, 1:09.77, 1:23.50
3yo, MSW, 22.38, 45.56, 1:10.81, 1:23.19
3yoF 150K, 21.85, 44.61, 1:09.26, 1:22.97
3yo, MSW, 23.03, 47.58, 1:13.06, 1:39.12, 1:52.23
3yo, NW1X, 23.29, 48.12, 1:12.83, 1:38.21, 1:50.97
3yo,1000K, 23.44, 47.05, 1:11.54, 1:37.60, 1:51.38
3yo, 150K, 22.18, 44.64, 1:09.40, 1:22.87
4up, NW1X 22.95, 46.23, 1:10.59, 1:16.94
3up, 100K 24.05, 48.27, 1:12.06, 1:37.01, 1:43.26

Now FOY Day:

1 -3yo, NW2X, 1mile 70 yards, :24.33, :48.84, 1:12.82, 1:42.40
3 -3yo, MSW, 9 marks :23.62, :48.10, 1:12.94, 1:39.39, 1:52.66
4 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :21.45, :43.48, 1:09.17, 1:22.86
6 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :22.18, :44.61, 1:08.91, 1:21.42
7 -4up, NW3X, 6.5 marks :21.93, :44.16, 1:09.14, 1:16.19
8 -3yo Fillies, 100K Stake, 6 marks :21.37, :44.00, :56.00, 1:08.85
9 -3yo, NW1X, 9 marks :23.43, :47.29, 1:12.02, 1:38.04, 1:50.67
10-3yo, 150K Stake, 7 marks :21.68, :43.73, 1:08.96, 1:22.23
11-3yo, 250K Stake, 8.5 marks :23.97, :47.70, 1:11.21, 1:36.16, 1:42.71
12-3yo, MSW, 6 marks :22.16, :45.14, :57.53, 1:10.09

For FOY day you have these fractions:
Less than :22 - 5
Less than :45 - 5
Less than :44 - 2
Less than 1:09- 3

For Derby Day you have these fractions:
Less than :22 - 1
Less than :45 - 3
Less than :44 - 0
Less than 1:09- 0

I submit the following:

1. That the cards for the most part were roughly equivalent. (Granted Limehouse, Second of June and others missed this card.)

2. FOY Day sprint fractions were significantly faster than Derby day sprint fractions

3. That although the sprints were slower on Derby Day the route races were run in roughly more equal times until the Florida Derby and "Skip Away" when it would/could be argued (to fit the "RTF ran into better horses" model) that the track "slowed down". For RTF to have lost the Florida Derby on the time of his last race he would have had to run the final 1/16 in 8.68 seconds which is the equivalent of an extrapolated quarter in 34:72 seconds.

4. That its possible that Intimdator, Summer Book & Swingforthefences bounced somewhat on FOY day efforts that may have been bigger than they appeared to be to some of the figure makers.

TGJB has stated T-Graph plotted the track speeding up on FOY day. It would be interesting to note if they plotted similarly for Derby day. RTF's Fountain of youth smashes the Skip Away horses and there were some good ones in there despite my bad mouthing of Newfoundland.

Lastly, Jerry implied something that bothered me with his "track watering" comments. Its in the thread, look it up if you're inclined, but the gist of it was that since the track was only watered slightly four times FOY day the track "sped up". Its almost as if they are working the mere fact of watering into their calculations about track speed. I don't think that can be done with any degree of science. It seems to me that changing track conditions can only be hypothesized on multiple race results and that if your sample is only one or two races at that distance due to sprints and turf racing making up the bulk of the card, that can be very hard to do. It would be interesting to know what the T-Graph figure would be for RTF's FOY without breaking the race from the other distance races that day. I'm guessing a negative 2 to 3.

Now the anecdotal evidence:

Jerry Bailey said RTF needed more urging and wasn't there when he asked him to run hard. (The only jockey I listen to is Jerry Bailey, he doesn't mince words most times, but even then I will grant you that a Jockey's opinion is not the key)

I still think the injuries from the FOY tend to indicate how tough the race was.

3 horses from the FOY contested the Fla.Derby: RTF, Sir Oscar & Frisky Spider. In the FOY, RTF beat them respectively by 14.5 and 15.5 lengths. In the Fla. Derby he beat them by 9.5 and 10.5 lengths. Whats interesting to note is that among themselves the performance between SO and FS stayed static, but that they each gained 5 lengths on RTF. (Don't get me wrong I know they may have improved, Sir Oscar bled in the FOY, but I find it interesting that the beaten lengths are what they are.)

Conclusion:

The thing thats so difficult about speed figures is that because the horses aren't machines and are dropping into different races or improving or going off form you can't ever really say for sure whether a horse is a Trust n' Luck or a much better horse that put out a tremendous effort that got overlooked due to track anamolies. But there is certainly the chance that projecting changing track speeds can result in a figure that skews the actual effort of a horse.

If John Chance really believes that RTF is a Trust n' Luck, he needs to immerse himself a bit more into the detail of the game.

CtC



Post Edited (03-15-04 08:51)