mjellish Wrote:
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> To my eye I didn't see anything run in FL
> yesterday that looked like a serious KY Derby
> contender. These colts would really have to show
> me something in their training leading up to the
> big one to be considered.
>
> Agree about Upstart. He's been wound tight since
> January and he lays it down every time. I don't
> see how he could put forth a top effort again, and
> I don't think he wants to go 1 1/4 anyway.
>
> I also don't think the FL Derby winner has enough
> seasoning to handle the grueling trip he's likely
> to see in a 20 horse field and deliver a top
> effort, especially since it's a Florida based
> Pletcher horse. Not saying he can't, but I
> wouldn't bet him to. He was absolutely gassed
> with an empty tank at the end of that race.
>
> Will concede the Gulfstream strip has been quirky
> past week and was again yesterday. So I reserve
> the right to change my opinion if one or more of
> these comes back to really impress in the AM in
> Louisville. But for now I am out.

Have to agree with all said here about Upstart. Stick a fork in him. One commenter stated that a person could look at his likely pattern as circling back to a top. However, I would think that if he was an older more developed horse. Rather, I see a young 3yo trying to get back to a top and not getting there. Even if Upstart's pattern does end up having him getting back to his top or a new top, I would also say that this is a horse who has already shown that he reacts and I would forecast a reaction. Additionally, Upstart is a horse who seems to prefer running on the outside....he is always 3w3w or worse.....all things considered, I see Upstart as a bet against.....even the best possible read on him is that he runs a good figure but ends up squandering it as usual going wide both turns. I think his campaign was very poorly mapped out.

AS to Materiality, he is a very lightly raced horse who has improved every race....it is very hard to know when to give a young lightly raced horse its first reaction. When I started sheet reading more than 25 years ago, the old timers use to always say never give a horse a bounce until it gives you one first. While nothing works 100%.....you usually get more surprises in your favor operating this way than surprises in your favor the other ways.

I must say it is a tribute to how strong and deep this crop is that betting against Upstart is not likely to provide too much edge. There are so many good strong candidates that he may end up being long anyway. I prefer to look for edges betting against horses taking money. However, a horse with his sheet would be taking huge amounts of money in almost any other year.

Am leaning to think this Derby may be a head scratcher better savored by watching than betting. I know that is heresy...but am thinking that is the way it looks. I do not remember a three year old crop this strong ever....only 3 year old crops I have seen that could rival this are ....'87 (born in '84 -- Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Cryptoclearance....to name a few) and '78 (born in '75 -- Affirmed and Alydar but there were other good ones that year....Quadratic, Star De Naskra, Nasty and Bold, Believe It, Darby Creek Road, Sauce Boat, Tilt Up).....I did not use the sheets in the 70s, so I cannot say how that crop was on the sheets. Also, for '73, I have a sense that could have been a good crop, but my handicapping was very primitive at that point (too primitive to make any real judgments).