Jerry I know you've got feel for pace. Theres no doubt and I'm with you on the pace factor. I'm just trying to look as thoroughly as possible regarding pace to get a feel for Rion Harts chances.

St. Averil has the hooves problem and he was rumored to look uncomfortable on his works at Churchill, but the one time he faced Rion Hart was right off his maiden and he ran darn close and darn game to him before he folded. I don't think St. Averil is gonna be in a physical position to influence the pace. Additionally, I don't trust the pace from the Norfolk. I don't think those fractions were run a slowish track. No Way.

So I hear you're point about inside. The only problem with inside is if for whatever reason you don't acquire position by the first turn. Its the worst place to be. Scores of derby's have been lost there. I think Smith telling Biancone he wanted the 3 hole tips his hand, but we all know Rion is gonna go.

Your point about Spend a Buck is noted. I still believe unless they run a 47:4 or 48 half on a legit 2:02 track that it takes a horse with 10 mark ability to win this thing on the front end. I Don't think Go For Gin or War Emblem or Winning Colors were the best Derby Winners ever, but I don't think you can argue against the fact that they were capable 10 mark horses. I'm not sure Rion Hart is in that mold. He may be, but he's not gonna skip away. Theres at least one horse that is gonna be on him like a shadow.