Chuckles,

You are right that, lately, the the Bluegrass fig horses have been crashing in the Derby. I take it you think TCE is a throw out too.

But, I do recall Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero and Unbridled. Now they, did not run great figs in the BG, but than had good excuses in talented races and fixed things on Derby day. That's my angle on LH. If he can correct his lead changes or quit waiting on horses . . . . (either will do, both will crush)

His connections my be 1) politically goofy (Smith) 2) wasteful with money (Tabor), and 3) possibly unethical (Biaconne), but LH doesn't know that. And none of those things ever caused a horse to lose.

But don't get me wrong, I odn't worship LH--he is by means a lock:

1.) A bad break could kill him and that easy to do in the Derby.

2.) An insane speed duel could cook him--not likely though.

3.) A MODERATELY closer-biased track could spoil his lead (which I still believe the BG was--how else could TCE make such a huge jump up. But we can disagree on this--you have your charts; I handicapped and watched the races live during meet.

Ironically, a VERY DEEP/TIRING TRACK will also favor LH because the jocks will let him go a super slow fractions and he won't be anymore tired in the strech than the closers--a little known and rare pace angle.

In sum, LH should be the favorite here. So, he is a great bet as third oe fourth choice.