Re: Estimating Final Odds (995 Views)
Posted by:
Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: December 13, 2015 09:02PM
Serious questions here about the superfecta and people playing the winning tickets in situations like I describe below. I will post the results first and then, ask the question thereafter. I really hope I receive feedback as I am being completely sincere with these questions.
[b]Gulfstream Park, Race 9.[/b]
12 horse field on the turf. 1 1/16 miles on turf.
TAP horse mentioned prominently in a DRF article is the $1.30 favorite (had never run on turf) and does not hit the superfecta. I only mention this to provide more context to this super.
Results:
[i][b]12. $6.90-1, 3rd choice of 12[/b][/i]
[i][b]6. $51.80-1, 10th choice of 12[/b][/i]
[i][b]7. $40.90-1, 9th choice of 12[/b][/i]
[i][b]10. $139.80-1, 12th choice of 12[/b][/i] (placed 4th following a correct DQ).
Superfecta Pool: $120,096.00. Takeout rate: 26%.
Pool distributed to winning tickets: (Pool multiplied by .74=) $88,871.04.
Winning payoff for ten cents (.10)=$6,345.25.
Amount of winning tickets ($88,871.04 divided by 6345.25=) 14 winning dime superfecta tickets or $1.40 worth of winning tickets stated another way.
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I do not question the math, the payoffs, and in no way do I believe anything nefarious happened here. My question revolves more around who hit this superfecta. These are absurd odds on the horses save the winner who was a fairly high priced third choice. I have been to enough tracks, read every handicapping article possible, and talked to enough people that I have a grasp on how people are wagering whether they go to a live teller or a self service terminal or use a computer at home without any wagering program.
To be clear, I am not asking how someone could have handicapped this result. I find it unlikely that any part of the $1.40 worth of winning wagers truly bet these tickets as their opinions. A post by TGJB rings true in my mind very often now and has helped me immensely when constructing wagers or making my gambling decision: What is your opinion of the race? That is exactly what you should bet. Are computers, CRW's as described in this thread, punching out a combination of every possible outcome into these large pools in different increments? Do you know someone who punches out enough superfecta combinations to get to this result? How much money is the person who "hits" this superfecta putting into if it is a real person? Are they constructing all of these superfecta bets well, well in advance of the race or are they at the window late (highly doubtful in my mind)?
I understand on the big days that enormous pools will have every combination covered by people betting numbers, colors, etc. But on a Sunday pool of $120k, is Every possible combo covered? Had the 50-1 shot I told my friends to use in their tri and super won the race, is it still hit by someone?
Are these boxes that are hitting this type ticket? Or a key of the 3rd choice with all with all with all? It just seems to me if someone is playing this combination they must consistently lose very often b/c having those 3 underneath the winner seems really really impossible. Or, as I suggest above, is this a computer program that is creating many of these wagers and no human is actually creating the tickets? Is it a combination of both?
I know this may seem like some to be elementary questions but I truly find it fascinating that somehow, some way, someone out there or $1.40 worth of somebodies had this ticket covered. Thoughts?