Re: Estimating Final Odds (990 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: December 14, 2015 04:51PM
miff Wrote:
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> "So for instance, if you look at all the horses
> that went off at 3-1 over history, you’ll find
> that they win around 25% of the time, just as the
> public estimated"
>
>
> Rocky,
>
>
> So if one bets every 3-1 shot and gets a rebate of
> say 6%, you must make money,seriously?
>
>
> Mike
Should have mentioned that the 3-1 is based on a 100% line, which equates to the 25% win probability. With a 16% takeout, those 3-1 shots actually go off at 2.36-1, and rebaters will of course still lose 10%:
EV = [.25x2.36 - .75x(-1)] + [.06 rebate] = -10%
The point I was trying to make was that overall, the public gets the win probabilities about right. Sorry for any confusion.