richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > Is History a science?
> >
> > Check out my timeline:
> >
> > May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run
> > uno, dos, tres in the
> > 2015 Ky. Derby
> >
> > Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and
> Ralis
> > ship cross country and take
> > the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.
> >
> > October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC
> > Juvie.
> >
> > November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes
> the
> > Delta Jackpot, beating east
> > coast and midwest 2YOs.
> >
> > Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based
> > maidens come scary close to
> > winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would
> > graded stakes committee do if both
> > these races were won by maidens?)
> >
> > April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships
> cross
> > country and easily defeats
> > Nowaymen.
> >
> > April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected
> (Baffert)
> > wins the Lexington Stakes.
> > Cal based maiden One More Round completes the
> > exacta.
>
> UPDATE
>
> California based 3YOs account for 2/3rds of Triple
> Crown.
>
> California based Laoban breaks maiden in Jim
> Dandy.
>
> California based Songbird dominates East Coast
> fillies twice.
>
> Baffert runners Drefong and Arrogate dominate on
> Travers Day; Baffert one two in the Travers.
>
> Why are young horses developing so much faster on
> the West Coast? Why are the
> best young horses ending up on West Coast?


FURTHER UPDATE:

Drefong and Arrogate take BC races.

Sonneteer (Cal based maiden) runs second in 2017 Rebel.

Irap (Cal based maiden) wins 2017 Blue Grass.

Before yesterday's Blue Grass, TVG hosts (and Dale Romans in a TVG interview)
were critical of the fact that the Toyota Blue Grass was downgraded from Gr I
to Gr II (as was the Wood Memorial); this was before known speed rider J.
Leparoux took the field virtually coast to coast on Doug O'Neill trained maiden
Irap.

It might get to the point where racetracks make these prep races
"Invitationals" to preclude the possibility of a maiden prevailing, followed by
downgrading by the graded stakes committee, though I do not know in terms of
nomination fees if this would be an expensive decision.

Frank says this will be a Derby reminiscent of Giacomo's shocker. After
Gormley's re-emergence yesterday, it is likely that at least we will be seeing
the Moss colors in the starting gate.

The California 3YOs were hindered by poor weather early in the winter; the two
top Cal 3YOs (Mastery and Unique Bella) are currently on the shelf, but I will
be looking more closely at any West Coast runner that makes it to Louisville.
As of right now, Gormley (ranked 2d), Irap (3d) and Battle of Midway (16) are
the only Cal based candidates with sufficient points to start in the Derby.
Royal Mo (22), Iliad (24) and Sonneteer (26) would all need help.
(Interestingly, BC Juvie champ Classic Empire is currently ranked 21st). (As of
this moment Bob Baffert's top candidates are ranked 35th and 39th).