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Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1293 Views)
Posted by: derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: April 30, 2002 05:20AM

This data is only from recent Derbies so the sample sizes are small and I was forced to group the data into three categories rather than by individual post position. The following shows how horses starting from the indicated posts fared with regards to ground loss.

Posts 1-6: average ground loss was 2 lengths

Posts 7-12: avg loss was 3.7 lengths

Posts 13-20: avg loss was 4.9 lengths

On average front runners save about 1.5 lengths compared to other running types breaking from a similar post.

So post position certainly does appear to matter with regards to ground loss even with the long run to the first turn.

Of course, this does not factor in the potential for running into traffic on the first turn from the inside posts in a 20 horse field. That may counter some of the advantage with regards to ground loss.

I personally would rather see my horse save ground and take its chances in just about any race, particularly turf races which also tend to have large, bunched-up fields and tight turns. A ground saving trip on the turf is usually the difference between winning and losing. I see no reason to change that thinking for the Derby. In fact, if you dig up the statistics (I did not but I recall seeing them not long ago) you will find that more winners have come from post 1 than any other. I don't think that is just a coincidence.

However, in the PP draw on Wed morning you will see most of the trainers avoiding the inside posts. Not a very wise move based on this data.

Chris

P.S. In response to another thread:

If I owned an off-the-pace Derby horse, Jerry Bailey would be my top choice to ride it. He is the best. No comparison. Check out his rides on Tejano Run, Blumin Affair, Grindstone and Sea Hero.

If I were betting on an off-the-pace Derby horse, Eddie D. would be my top choice to ride it. He is almost as good as Bailey and he does not hurt your odds. He is great at saving ground and waiting for a hole and then hitting that hole without hesitation when that is what it takes to win a big race. He is a Perfect fit for his mount in this year's Derby (pun intended).



Subject Written By Posted
Derby 128 (2062 Views) kevin s 04/29/2002 05:52PM
Re: Derby 128 (1322 Views) kevin s 04/29/2002 10:18PM
Re: Derby 128 (1187 Views) Michael D. 04/29/2002 11:13PM
Re: Derby 128 (1329 Views) kevin s 04/30/2002 12:57AM
Re: Derby 128 (1244 Views) Treadhead 04/30/2002 01:18AM
Re: Derby 128 (1226 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 02:51AM
Re: Derby 128 (1167 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 02:58AM
Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1293 Views) derby1592 04/30/2002 05:20AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1199 Views) bdhsheets 04/30/2002 09:04AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1233 Views) Treadhead 04/30/2002 11:28AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1352 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 11:31AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1502 Views) derby1592 05/01/2002 04:30AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1245 Views) HP 05/01/2002 12:10PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1168 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 05/01/2002 12:50PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1404 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 05/01/2002 12:54PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1151 Views) HP 05/01/2002 01:20PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1344 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 05/01/2002 01:52PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1285 Views) HP 05/01/2002 01:57PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1203 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 05/01/2002 02:44PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1218 Views) fastspeed 05/01/2002 02:19PM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1171 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 11:32AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1339 Views) HP 04/30/2002 11:50AM
Re: Post Position and ground loss in the Derby (1239 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 01:09PM
Re: Derby 128 (1174 Views) Michael D. 04/30/2002 11:44AM
Re: Derby 128 (1320 Views) nunzio 04/30/2002 12:11PM
Re: Derby 128 (1417 Views) Treadhead 04/30/2002 12:33PM
Re: Derby 128 (1234 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 12:58PM
Re: Derby 128 (1164 Views) TGJB 04/30/2002 04:43PM
Re: Derby 128 (1267 Views) bdhsheets 04/30/2002 06:24PM
Re: Derby 128 (1198 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 07:01PM
Re: Derby 128 (1232 Views) TGJB 04/30/2002 08:07PM
Re: Derby 128 (1327 Views) Michael D. 04/30/2002 08:13PM
Re: Derby 128 (1185 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 08:57PM
Re: Derby 128 (1249 Views) Michael D. 04/30/2002 09:13PM
Re: Derby 128 (1222 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 04/30/2002 10:27PM
Re: Derby 128-trainer opinions (1287 Views) bdhsheets 04/30/2002 11:32PM
Re: Derby 128 (1339 Views) TGJB 05/01/2002 04:16PM
Re: Derby 128 (1242 Views) kevin s 05/02/2002 02:48AM
Re: Derby 128 (1208 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 05/02/2002 03:31AM


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