bdsheets,

Admittedly winners have come from outside posts frequently over the last 5 years but I think that was more a matter of the best horse simply drawing an outstide post and overcoming it with ability and/or a good ride (as you pointed out).

However all of those recent outside post winners went wide early with the exception of FuPeg and they all earned by far the top figure in their race (indicating that they were much the best). Note that the only recent winner that drew an inside post was Real Quiet and he hugged the rail early and actually won the Derby without even earning the fastest figure (as JB so painfully recalls). I think post position does matter, particularly if several horses are evenly matched as is likely to be the case this year.

I doubt that you will see anybody choosing to be out in the auxilliary gate in the PP draw tomorrow unless they have to and for good reason despite the recent success. An outside post is not a show-stopper but it certainly does not help a horses chances.

Chris