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Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1166 Views)
Posted by: rezlegal (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2016 11:48AM

Sekrah is to given high marks and his comment should lead to a board discussion about to to handicap good eloping 3 year olds.I preface my comments with the fact that I had not a nickel on the winner yesterday and - of course, in hindsight, strongly believe I missed a real opportunity. I start out with two premises. One, 3 year old are essentially teenagers growing into themselves. Second, foot sheets players ( broad generalization to follow) there is too much of a tendency , IMO, to look at a 3 year olds back number as a basis for predicting that days race. I understand the methodology but it is not the only way to go and, it can be argued, is somewhat antithetical to the concept of development, particularly in a lightly raced horse. I prefer to try to find a 3 year old who has a real.chance to run a new top. I grant you the new top may or may not be fast enough to win the race but such horses will usually be lightly bet. When I did the race- - and I spent a lot of time,-I did not believe more than a 1-2 would be be required to win. We can debate that wisdom some other time.( I hated American Freedom- had run too fast, too often in too shorter period for my taste. ) But that led me to Destin, Gift box and Connect- and the sound of ripping tickets. if you adjust, as Sekrah did, Arrogates last to something less than a 4 , coupled with his being lightly raced AND bred to do the distance, and being a Juddmonte horse, it is hardly a reach to ask him to run a 1 yesterday. ( I won't even guess what jerry will give him). More to the point, if you look at many of the horses that were bet yesterday, either because of patterns or Breeding- let's not forget that even sheets players should pay attention to that in 1 1/4 mice- many on this board, if nothing else, should have concluded the winner was going to move forward, at a price. My congrats to Sekrah- there are many lessons for all of us in a game that requires an open mind and education. It is irrelevant to this discussion that he freaked, broke the track record etc. Nobody saw that coming.



Subject Written By Posted
Arrogate looked like a toss (1910 Views) Tellmenolies 08/27/2016 08:04PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1169 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 08:59AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1288 Views) FrankD. 08/28/2016 09:18AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1061 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 09:32AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1025 Views) boardedup 08/28/2016 05:06PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (986 Views) jimbo66 08/28/2016 04:21PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (991 Views) P-Dub 08/28/2016 07:28PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1046 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 09:02AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1105 Views) jerry 08/28/2016 10:43AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1166 Views) rezlegal 08/28/2016 11:48AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1009 Views) rezlegal 08/28/2016 11:52AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1171 Views) arhidia 08/28/2016 04:01PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1156 Views) TGJB 08/28/2016 04:33PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (934 Views) prist 08/28/2016 07:00PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (982 Views) prist 08/28/2016 07:13PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1790 Views) jim dennis 08/29/2016 03:47PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (933 Views) TGJB 08/29/2016 05:18PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (906 Views) Tellmenolies 08/29/2016 10:09PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (929 Views) arhidia 08/29/2016 07:42PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (862 Views) JimP 08/29/2016 07:50PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (874 Views) justwin 08/29/2016 09:11PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (837 Views) Ill-bred 08/29/2016 10:11PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (856 Views) jerry 08/30/2016 12:39AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (884 Views) TGJB 08/30/2016 01:19AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (731 Views) jerry 08/30/2016 02:12PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (840 Views) Gerard 08/30/2016 07:40AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (839 Views) TGJB 08/30/2016 12:50PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (819 Views) Gerard 08/30/2016 01:14PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1024 Views) TGJB 08/30/2016 02:20PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1095 Views) boardedup 08/28/2016 05:14PM


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