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Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1791 Views)
Posted by: jim dennis (IP Logged)
Date: August 29, 2016 03:47PM

arhidia wrote:

[i]FYI The RAGS guys made huge scores on the TRAVERS as Arrogate on the RAGS was 2ND fastest to throw out Exxagerator and had a very good pattern.[/i]

This claim is false. The reality is that on Ragozin, [b]AMERICAN FREEDOM, GOVERNOR MALIBU, EXAGGERATOR, DESTIN, GIFT BOX, CONNECT, and GUN RUNNER[/b] were all "faster" than ARROGATE.

While there is no doubt that Jon Hardoon crushed this race, what his followers did remains to be heard. I do know several very good Ragozin handicappers, including myself, who made no such "huge scores". Personally, I felt that given the data I was using, GUN RUNNER at 10-1 was better value than ARROGATE at 12-1. Looking back, I was dead wrong.

Where did I err? In retrospect, several areas, including: ignoring the horrible post position on GUN RUNNER and giving him too much credit for his previous forward moving performances in 11, 10, and 20 horse fields.

But my greater mistake was ignoring my awareness of the continuously emerging changes in the winning Derby profile. No strong 2yo. foundation? So what? It's become clear that it's now only a matter of "when", not "if" the so-called "APOLLO" curse will be broken. Lightly raced? It's become an advantage, not a disadvantage, in my mind. No final prep at 9 furlongs or more? Who cares.

Just as the small new top on Ragozin indicated a [b]big[/b] step forward was highly possible, so did the tripled-up tops on Thoro-Graph. If you love a paired-up top on a lightly raced 3yo, don't you have to adore the third one in terms of the horse's future? If the pair makes him highly explosive, doesn't the tripled-up top make it even more likely the big jump is coming soon? We're not talking about an older horse who has put forth three efforts in a row and is likely to regress, but a developing, extremely talented, lightly raced young 3yo.

I remember when Baffert was interviewed years ago and someone asked him, what about "seasoning"? His reply was seasoning is for food, not horses. So, how talented is this horse? Even though I'm a confirmed final speed figure guy who tends to ignore pace (maybe too much), I've made it no secret I like Trakus. Break down ARROGATE's fractions in 2 of his 3 last routes prior to the Travers, and you'll see that he ran each quarter-mile as fast or faster than the next. Fast horses aren't supposed to be able to do that. Even very good dirt horses are supposed to start out faster, and slow down as the race goes on. Only the great ones (on the dirt) seem to be capable of running faster and faster as the race goes on. So those two past performances, from an incremental internal speed analysis, were pretty darn good predictors of the incredible ability ARROGATE possessed to carry his speed a distance in that fashion. I ignored that. Nobody's fault but mine, certainly not a figure-maker. Only his opening quarter was faster than his closing quarter mile on Saturday.

So don't blame missing a score on "Jerry's numbers were wrong". Yesterday's result does nothing to indicate that was the case. Blame it on the misguided expectation, when handicapping, that the fastest horses in the past are going to be the fastest horses in the future. And "arahia", if you are going to insist on posting a moronic taunt like you did, at least try to get your facts somewhere within the bounds of reality.

Jim



Subject Written By Posted
Arrogate looked like a toss (1913 Views) Tellmenolies 08/27/2016 08:04PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1170 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 08:59AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1290 Views) FrankD. 08/28/2016 09:18AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1063 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 09:32AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1026 Views) boardedup 08/28/2016 05:06PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (988 Views) jimbo66 08/28/2016 04:21PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (992 Views) P-Dub 08/28/2016 07:28PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1048 Views) Dana666 08/28/2016 09:02AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1107 Views) jerry 08/28/2016 10:43AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1168 Views) rezlegal 08/28/2016 11:48AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1011 Views) rezlegal 08/28/2016 11:52AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1172 Views) arhidia 08/28/2016 04:01PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1157 Views) TGJB 08/28/2016 04:33PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (935 Views) prist 08/28/2016 07:00PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (983 Views) prist 08/28/2016 07:13PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1791 Views) jim dennis 08/29/2016 03:47PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (934 Views) TGJB 08/29/2016 05:18PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (907 Views) Tellmenolies 08/29/2016 10:09PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (930 Views) arhidia 08/29/2016 07:42PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (863 Views) JimP 08/29/2016 07:50PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (875 Views) justwin 08/29/2016 09:11PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (838 Views) Ill-bred 08/29/2016 10:11PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (857 Views) jerry 08/30/2016 12:39AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (885 Views) TGJB 08/30/2016 01:19AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (732 Views) jerry 08/30/2016 02:12PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (842 Views) Gerard 08/30/2016 07:40AM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (840 Views) TGJB 08/30/2016 12:50PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (820 Views) Gerard 08/30/2016 01:14PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1026 Views) TGJB 08/30/2016 02:20PM
Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1096 Views) boardedup 08/28/2016 05:14PM


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